DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459

Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects.
Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep459-sb
See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.

*Transcript:*
https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert-transcript

*CONTACT LEX:*
*Feedback* - give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey
*AMA* - submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama
*Hiring* - join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring
*Other* - other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact

*EPISODE LINKS:*
Dylan's X: https://x.com/dylan522p
SemiAnalysis: https://semianalysis.com/
Nathan's X: https://x.com/natolambert
Nathan's Blog: https://www.interconnects.ai/
Nathan's Podcast: https://www.interconnects.ai/podcast
Nathan's Website: https://www.natolambert.com/
Nathan's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@natolambert
Nathan's Book: https://rlhfbook.com/

*SPONSORS:*
To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts:
*Invideo AI:* AI video generator.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/invideoai-ep459-sb
*GitHub:* Developer platform and AI code editor.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/github-ep459-sb
*Shopify:* Sell stuff online.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/shopify-ep459-sb
*NetSuite:* Business management software.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/netsuite-ep459-sb
*AG1:* All-in-one daily nutrition drinks.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/ag1-ep459-sb

*OUTLINE:*
0:00 - Introduction
3:33 - DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3
25:07 - Low cost of training
51:25 - DeepSeek compute cluster
58:57 - Export controls on GPUs to China
1:09:16 - AGI timeline
1:18:41 - China's manufacturing capacity
1:26:36 - Cold war with China
1:31:05 - TSMC and Taiwan
1:54:44 - Best GPUs for AI
2:09:36 - Why DeepSeek is so cheap
2:22:55 - Espionage
2:31:57 - Censorship
2:44:52 - Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL
2:55:23 - OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1
3:14:31 - NVIDIA
3:18:58 - GPU smuggling
3:25:36 - DeepSeek training on OpenAI data
3:36:04 - AI megaclusters
4:11:26 - Who wins the race to AGI?
4:21:39 - AI agents
4:30:21 - Programming and AI
4:37:49 - Open source
4:47:01 - Stargate
4:54:30 - Future of AI

*PODCAST LINKS:*
- Podcast Website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast
- Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr
- Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8
- RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/
- Podcast Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4
- Clips Channel: https://www.youtube.com/lexclips

*SOCIAL LINKS:*
- X: https://x.com/lexfridman
- Instagram: https://instagram.com/lexfridman
- TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@lexfridman
- LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/lexfridman
- Facebook: https://facebook.com/lexfridman
- Patreon: https://patreon.com/lexfridman
- Telegram: https://t.me/lexfridman
- Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/lexfridman