Biden administration approves California electric car mandate. Will Trump try to revoke it?
In summary
The US EPA granted California’s waiver, which the incoming Trump administration is likely to try to overturn in the courts. The state’s zero-emission vehicle mandates have been the driving force behind California’s progress in cleaning up dangerous air pollutants.
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The Biden administration today approved California’s groundbreaking mandate phasing out new gas-powered cars just weeks before the incoming Trump administration poses a threat of overturning electric vehicle and climate rules.
The granting of the waiver by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency allows California to move forward in requiring 35% of new 2026 model cars sold in the state to be zero-emissions, 68% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. Nearly all zero-emission cars are powered by electricity.
The EPA also today gave the go-ahead to a 2020 California regulation requiring reductions in nitrogen oxides — a key ingredient of smog — emitted by heavy-duty trucks and buses.
The Trump administration is likely to challenge the approved waivers through the courts and deny other California vehicle standards yet to be greenlit.
At a campaign event in Michigan earlier this year, Trump dismissed the possibility of any state banning new gas-powered cars, declaring, “I guarantee it — no way.”
“The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail, including stopping attacks on gas-powered cars. When he takes office, President Trump will support the auto industry, allowing space for both gas-powered cars AND electric vehicles,” said Karoline Leavitt, Trump-Vance Transition spokesperson.
For longer than half a century, California’s vehicle emissions rules have been the driving force for dramatic improvements in the state’s air quality, especially in the smoggy Los Angeles basin and San Joaquin Valley. Cars, trucks and other vehicles are the biggest sources of smog-forming gases and soot, which cause asthma and heart attacks and other serious respiratory problems.
“California has longstanding authority to request waivers from EPA to protect its residents from dangerous air pollution coming from mobile sources like cars and trucks,” EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan said in a statement. “Today’s actions follow through on EPA’s commitment to partner with states to reduce emissions and act on the threat of climate change.”
Ann Carlson, an environmental law professor at UCLA, said the decision to grant the waivers makes it much more difficult for the Trump administration to challenge them since they would have to try to reverse an agency decision, rather than deny a pending waiver. Nevertheless, a legal battle over the rules is likely, she said.
“We can expect, likely, a lot of legal wrangling ahead,” Carlson said.
Congress granted California the authority to set its own vehicle emissions standards in a 1967 clean-air law. But each standard set by California requires a waiver from the EPA before it can be implemented.
“California has longstanding authority to request waivers from EPA to protect its residents from dangerous air pollution coming from mobile sources like cars and trucks.” EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan
Under the federal Clean Air Act, the EPA can only legally reject a waiver if it’s “arbitrary or capricious,” unnecessary for addressing air pollution or technologically infeasible due to inadequate lead time.
None of California’s waivers has ever been successfully revoked. The Trump administration in 2019 tried to revoke part of one waiver and tried to eliminate California’s authority to enact its own emissions and mileage rules for cars. But California and 22 other states sued. The Biden administration’s EPA in 2022 granted the state a waiver for the earlier version of its zero-emission car rules, which triggered a lawsuit by oil companies and 14 Republican-led states.
The stakes are high since the state’s air pollution ranks among the nation’s worst. Failure to meet federal health standards for smog and soot could result in economic sanctions, including the loss of highway funds.
“This might read like checking a bureaucratic box, but EPA’s approval is a critical step forward in protecting our lungs from pollution and our wallets from the expenses of combustion fuels,” Paul Cort, an attorney with the environmental group Earthjustice, said in a statement. “The gradual shift in car sales to zero-emissions models will cut smog and household costs while growing California’s clean energy workforce.”
A Hyundai Ioniq 6 charges at an Electrify America charging station in Oakland. Under California’s mandate, 100% of new car sales must be emissions-free in 2035. Photo by Camille Cohen for CalMatters
The Newsom administration has been pressing the EPA this year to approve all eight California clean-vehicle rules that still needed the agency’s go-ahead. Gov. Gavin Newsom traveled to Washington, D.C. last month to press the Biden administration to act before Donald Trump takes over the White House on Jan. 20.
“Clean cars are here to stay,” Newsom said in a statement. “Automakers and manufacturers have made it clear they intend to stick with California and consumers as we move toward clean cars that save people money. Naysayers like President-elect Trump would prefer to side with the oil industry over consumers and American automakers, but California will continue fostering new innovations in the market.”
Nevertheless, the transition to electrify transportation faces headwinds even in the Golden State. Electric car sales, once surging, have plateaued this year. Sales through the first nine months of this year were up only 1.2% over the same period last year, according to state data. That compares to a 56% increase in sales the previous year and 38% in 2022.
“Never mind that the technology isn’t there and the charging infrastructure is falling apart. Never mind that this isn’t practical in rural areas or that people can’t afford to pay even higher up-front costs for cars,” said Assemblyman James Gallagher, a Republican from Chico. “Newsom and his Democrat allies are all in on making life harder and more expensive for working Californians.”
The November election has already influenced some decision-making at The California Air Resources Board, which enacts the state’s air pollution and climate rules. Earlier this month, the board at the last minute pulled back a proposed rule ramping up sales of zero-emission motorcycles. That decision came in part due to Trump’s election, a person familiar with the board’s thinking said. The state will instead offer incentives for people to buy electric motorcycles.
The EPA still is considering six other California clean air rules, including ones that phase out diesel trucks and require cleaner locomotives, commercial ships and off-road diesel vehicles like tractors and construction equipment. The most controversial are the regulations for trucks and locomotives.
“We urge EPA to approve California’s remaining outstanding waivers and authorizations for other lifesaving clean air programs, allowing states to continue their long-standing commitment to air quality and public health protection,” said Harold Wimmer, president and CEO of the American Lung Association.
Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court decided to review whether the oil industry has the legal standing to try to overturn a lower court’s decision that allowed California to set low- and zero-car emission standards for model years 2015 through 2025.
American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, representing the oil industry, said today that the “EPA’s authorization of the California ban and California’s ban itself are unlawful.”
The new waivers approved today will provide more opportunities for legal disputes in the Trump 2.0 era, and those battles could once again reach the conservative-leaning Supreme Court. The justices earlier this year did away with a 40-year-old judicial rule of thumb, known as “Chevron deference,” which has been key for setting climate and environmental policy. The principle, rooted in a 1984 decision, obligated judges to yield to a federal agency’s interpretation when determining how a Congressional law should be applied.
Congress has passed little direct legislation on climate change and the EPA has relied on interpretations of older environmental laws, including the Clean Air Act.
Efforts to overturn California’s authority may also extend to Congress. The Congressional Review Act allows Congress to revoke federal rules approved during a certain timeframe at the end of an administration. Legal experts, however, debate whether that law would apply to EPA actions related to California’s clean-air waivers.
Republicans may attempt to repeal the Clean Air Act provisions that empower California, but such efforts would likely encounter resistance, including potential Democratic filibusters. Historically, bipartisan support for combating air pollution has thwarted similar moves to alter the Clean Air Act.
California’s clean-car mandate is also central to its climate strategy and has helped make the state a national leader in climate policy, with 11 states and Washington, D.C., adopting or planning to adopt its zero-emission car sales mandate.
Automakers prefer a single national standard governing their vehicles’ emissions. But they also have worked closely with California officials for decades because of the state’s history, legal authority and economic influence. Many automakers, aware of California’s large market share, have opted to negotiate with the state rather than resist state standards. In 2020 BMW, Ford, Honda, Volkswagen and Volvo agreed to adhere to California’s standards through 2026, irrespective of federal actions. Stellantis pledged compliance with zero-emission car sales requirements through 2030, even in the face of federal or judicial opposition.
For 2026 models, 35% of sales in California must be zero emissions under the state rules; through September, they are only 25.4% of sales this year.
The phased-in mandate allows sales of new plug-in hybrids as well as battery-only cars, and the state says some gas-powered cars are expected to remain on California roads for more than 25 years.
Many obstacles stand in the way of electrifying cars, including the need for more public fast chargers. State officials estimate that California needs a million public charging stations in six years — almost 10 times more than the number available to drivers a year ago — and 2.1 million by 2035.
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, an auto industry group, published a memo last week saying that it “will take a miracle” for all of the states that follow California’s rules to reach 100% new zero-emission cars by 2035.
“There needs to be balance and some states should exit the program,” John Bozzella, the group’s CEO, said.
“Automakers are producing electric vehicles… but there’s a huge gap between these EV sales mandates and a customer’s reasonable expectation they can still choose what kind of vehicle to drive.”
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