After Putin: Reset or Replay?
New face or the same machine? In this episode, I break down what actually happens after Putin: does Russia get a reset—or a replay of the same system with a different actor? We’ll map the power networks, the incentives, and the first 100-day signals that tell you which path the Kremlin is taking.
What’s inside
-System vs. Successor: Why personalities matter less than the siloviki–bureaucracy–state-corporate machine
-Three scenarios: Reset, Replay, and the Wildcard (managed turbulence/elite fractures)
-Pros & cons of a Reset: Potential sanctions relief path, de-escalation, economic oxygen vs. pushback from security services & nationalists
-Pros & cons of a Replay: Short-term “stability,” continuity of patronage vs. stagnation, war drag, budget stress, brain drain
-Deciders: War status, oil/FX, elite cohesion, regional governors, media tone, and public mood
Scorecard—watch these first 30/100 days:
-Cabinet & security reshuffles • Duma/legal moves • Media language shift • Political prisoners & mobilization signals • Business/regional deals
-Implications: Prices, investment, borders, and Russia’s relationship with the West and neighbors
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