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A shock new poll has revealed Pauline Hanson's One Nation party has surged to equal pegging with the Coalition following the Bondi Beach terror attack.
A new DemosAU poll for Capital Brief shows both parties are sitting at 23 per cent on primary votes, marking a dramatic rise for Hanson's party since December.
Labor has dropped to 29 per cent, its lowest score since the May 2025 election, while the Greens hold 12 per cent and independents or minor parties attract 13 per cent.
Preference flows based on the last federal election place Labor narrowly ahead 52-48 two‑party‑preferred, signalling a tight contest.
The poll assumes 74.5 per cent of One Nation voters would again direct their preferences to the Coalition.
Pollsters also modelled a hypothetical head-to-head between Labor and One Nation, producing a 50–50 split.
In this scenario, the Coalition's preferences are expected to flow to One Nation at 83 per cent, reflecting the pattern seen in the NSW seat of Hunter.
Speaking to Daily Mail on Friday, Pauline Hanson said there has always been 'quiet support' for her party across Australia.
Pauline Hanson (pictured) and One Nation are now tied with the Coalition in primary votes
Labor also took a tumble, with a primary vote of 29 per cent, the lowest since the 2025 election
'It's becoming more open now, as increasing numbers of Australians despair over the direction our country is heading under Labor,' she said.
'More Australians are sensing that One Nation represents a real alternative. Even when they don't agree with me on everything, Australians have always known what I stand for: Australia and its people.'
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's job performance rating sits at 29 per cent positive, 30 per cent neutral and 41 per cent negative.
Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley scores 17 per cent positive, 55 per cent neutral and 28 per cent negative.
Despite his declining approval, Albanese remains the preferred prime minister, ahead of Ley 42 to 29 per cent.
The figures follow a surge in support for One Nation and Hanson since the Bondi Beach attack, which has renewed political focus to national security and migration.
Recent polling also shows Hanson and her newest recruit, Barnaby Joyce, have staged dramatic turnarounds in public likeability, with Joyce jumping from -22 to -4 after quitting the Nationals to join One Nation, and Hanson crossing from negative to positive territory for the first time.
While faith in Hanson grows, the Coalition faces its worst crisis in four decades.
Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce are pictured at the Bondi Pavilion flower memorial
The Coalition is polling at a record low of 23 per cent primary vote (Sussan Ley is pictured)
Newspoll's quarterly analysis for The Australian shows the Coalition's primary vote at 24 per cent, its lowest since polling began in 1985.
It is understood that other federal coalition MPs are considering defecting to One Nation later this year, following Joyce's departure.
While the Coalition has the most to lose from a surging One Nation, Labor could also face challenge in a handful of regional seats, including Hunter.
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