How Canada’s rate reset puts essential retail and apartments back in the spotlight
The 2025 federal budget cut the federal corporate marginal effective tax rate from 15.6 percent to 13.2 percent, which Skyline notes is the lowest in the G7, and that could support business investment and industrial demand at the margin.
On the labour side, the outlook calls for:
A 0.5–1.0 percentage point decline in unemployment.
Average hourly earnings keeping pace with, or slightly ahead of, inflation.
That’s a backdrop where multi‑residential, grocery‑anchored retail, and quality industrial can still post rental growth without relying on aggressive macro assumptions.
The big swing factor is the July 1 CUSMA review.
The scenarios range from a simple extension to full withdrawal and a reversion to World Trade Organization tariffs. Skyline notes a KPMG survey showing 88 percent of Canadian business leaders view losing CUSMA protections as their top risk.
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