Scottish election 2026: Why over-obsessing about polls and tactical voting is bad for democracy

According to the latest poll, the SNP is set to miss out on a majority in the Scottish Parliament, but could still win 57 seats, ahead of Reform in second on 21 and third-placed Labour on 18. As each survey is published, for some people it can be every bit as thrilling as the race for the Scottish Premiership title. However, politics is not actually about winners and losers, polls or even seats, it is about ideas.

This Holyrood election is likely to see a considerable amount of tactical voting against both the SNP and Reform. And there are perfectly good reasons why voters may wish to take this approach. Many unionists will be keen to avoid a second independence referendum, while Reform’s politics clearly appal many people.

However, if everyone ends up voting against a party, rather than for the one which best represents their views, our elected representatives will end up being at odds with the actual ‘will of the people’, resulting in a distortion of democracy.

Furthermore, the fact that tactical voting is largely based on national polls, which are not always a useful guide to individual constituencies, and all polls have a margin of error that could be decisive in close elections means some tactical votes will almost inevitably be misplaced.

So when considering who to vote for, we should at least first think about which party best represents our views and consider lending them our support, before contemplating a tactical vote we may later regret.

The suggestion that backing a party which is not going to win is a ‘wasted’ vote has long dogged our politics. However, on that logic, voting for the party that’s going to win anyway could be said to be equally pointless.

These insidious ideas are one reason why turnout is expected to be particularly low and parties which manage to get their vote out may do better than the polls suggest.

But politics is not a sport, there are no dead rubbers and no vote is wasted. And if we want a better Scotland, we need to vote for the party we think is most likely to deliver it.