The Trump administration miscalculated how Iran would respond to this war. And the United States, Iran and Israel were brought to the brink of war in the first place because of a whole series of misjudgments and miscalculations going back decades.
Ali Vaez is the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group. He was involved in the negotiations that led to the 2015 nuclear deal, and is in fact himself a nuclear scientist. He’s also an author of “How Sanctions Work: Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare.”
In this conversation, Vaez explains how over 47 years the United States, Israel and Iran came to see one another as threats, and why so many efforts to thaw relations failed. It’s the briefing on Iran that Trump should have received before he decided to go to war.
0:00 Intro
2:45 The Iranian Revolution
5:19 The Iranian hostage crisis
8:48 The U.S.’s involvement in the 1953 coup
15:40 Iran-Iraq War
19:43 The origins of the I.R.G.C.
21:44 Iran and Israel in the ’80s
23:45 Khamenei Rises to Power
26:35 Life in Iran during the 1980s
32:57 What does Iran want?
44:37 Post-9/11
47:36 Nuclear Lessons and Deterrence
50:50 Obama and the Nuclear deal
1:04:46 Oct. 7
1:13:42 Why talks failed
1:21:19 The U.S.-Israel war in Iran
1:34:07 There’s no plan
1:38:03 Book recommendations
Read the full transcript here:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-ali-vaez.html
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