Russia facing countdown to mass conscription – and there will be severe consequences
Russia’s inability to replace its battlefield casualties could have huge implications for Vladimir Putin’s ability to continue to wage war. Western officials confirmed yesterday that the county has lost more soldiers than it has been able to recruit over the last three months, with the country regularly losing more than 1,000 people in one day.A western official told reporters: “It’s not the first time the casualty rate has exceeded recruitment, but it’s the first time this has been sustained over three months,” describing the losses as a “critical” moment that could have a significant impact if it continues. They added: “That manpower calculus is really significant. It’s significant operationally and tactically, in terms of their ability to generate offensive power, but also, critically, it starts to raise the issue of coercive mobilisation within Russia.“Currently, they are not recruiting from major cities. They are recruiting from rural areas and the Stans (a reference to Central Asian countries under Russian influence) in the belief that they will make money.”Russia has sought to lure recruits from some of its poorest regions with signing bonuses worth up to £40,000, but experts are increasingly sceptical about how long Moscow can afford to keep offering such costly incentives.Officials believe that any introduction of forced conscription could have a serious impact domestically, increasing the chances of public dissent and political pressure amid mounting losses.*** Ensure our latest news headlines always appear at the top of your Google Search by making us a Preferred Source. Click here to activate or add us as Preferred Source in your Google search settings. ***They add that fewer men taking up financial incentives could force the country to mandate military service, with two key impacts.Forced mobilisation of men into the military would reduce the pool of people in the domestic labour market, with a subsequent impact being felt on the economy due to fluctuations in wages and lack of available people to perform key tasks.They also believe it could have a significant impact on the defence industrial base within the country, something the Kremlin relies on to sustain its war amid international sanctions.Up to now, many of the recruits have been derived from Russia’s prison system, with some of the country’s most notorious prisons being emptied, freeing those convicted of murder, rape and other hideous crimes in exchange for military service.
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