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Reform UK is set to win the Gorton and Denton by-election according to the latest poll of the constituency. It has a tiny sample size and the results suppose that a Reform victory is only within the margin of error. But it has added firewood to a roaring conversation in Labour: could we squeak it? Party insiders think so, despite the drama (or “psychodrama”) surrounding Andy Burnham’s short-lived campaign to be Labour’s candidate.
Nigel Farage’s party would win the seat by three percentage points according to a FindOutNow poll published by the Telegraph on Wednesday. The fieldwork for the poll was carried out from 26 to 27 January with a small sample size of 143 voters. According to the poll, Reform are due to take 30 per cent of the vote and Labour 27 per cent. The Greens, despite ambitious talk of victory, are on 17 per cent. This latest poll tallies with other recent polling in the seat.
So what do the results mean for Labour? A flush of optimism. Party sources have described themselves as “bullish” about its prospects in the seat. The small margin, plus the poor showing for the Greens, will brighten the mood at HQ.
Perhaps they will avoid another Caerphilly. In that Welsh Senedd by-election in October last year, Labour was squeezed from the left by Plaid Cymru and from the right by Reform, leaving it in third place with just 11 per cent of the vote, 35 points down on the previous election).
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Reform began canvassing Gordon and Denton months ago in the expectation that local MP Andrew Gwynne, who had the whip suspended after a minor scandal, would step down.
Labour is now making up ground and the party will be throwing resources at the seat in the coming weeks. 100 activists are already at work in the constituency. Senior Labour figures are already signed up to visit and go door knocking. They include Rachel Reeves, Lucy Powell, Bridget Phillipson and Steve Reed.
The Labour candidate is due to be revealed on Saturday once the National Executive Committee’s shortlisting process is complete and local party members have decided on their choice.
Despite the poll, there are still some worries that Zack Polanski’s insurgent left populist party could split the left vote or even win the seat. The Green candidate will be revealed on Friday.
Labour strategists are keen to assert that the Greens are no-hopers in this seat and that voting Green might hand victory to Reform. Labour’s press team have also been quick to jump on early Green blunders like incorrectly spelling the constituency name on election materials.
There was much amusement in Labour HQ at a Green bar chat which claimed they were the only force that could beat Reform in Gorton and Denton despite polling behind Labour in the seat.
If the Greens must be crushed to beat Reform, how will Labour do it? I understand that one of the dividing lines Labour is hoping to draw with their Green opponents is on drug policy. Labour strategists hope that religious and socially conservative voters in the seat will be put off by the Greens’ liberal position on drugs.
We saw the first flashes of this approach from Keir Starmer last week at Prime Minister’s Questions when he said the Greens were “high on drugs” because of their drug legalisation policy.
Reform UK is also coming under fire from Labour’s attack operation. The party’s candidate Matthew Goodwin, an academic turned right-wing firebrand, was targeted in a video clip which showed him deriding Manchester in a speech. (This was in turn attacked for unfair editing because Goodwin was referring to the Conservative conference in Manchester, not the city itself.) Old X posts in which Goodwin seems to deride the city have also been uncovered in an attempt to discredit his candidacy. Expect more of that to come. He is considered by Labour to be an “odd” choice for the seat because of his baggage.
The latest small poll from the Telegraph also projects that Labour would have won the seat by a comfortable 21 points had Burnham been allowed to stand as its candidate. The Greater Manchester mayor was blocked by the NEC this weekend because of concerns that his candidacy would trigger a costly mayoral by-election.
Despite two letters of complaint from the Soft Left of the party, Labour strategists hope the party will move on when their candidate is selected on Saturday. It is also expected that Burnham himself will use his personal popularity in Manchester to campaign for the selected candidate.
Burnham, though he made a barbed comment on X at the weekend suggesting Labour would not win the seat if he were not the candidate, the mayor has since urged Labour MPs to “come up to Manchester” and fight to hold the seat. All to play for?
[Further reading: How a single call sealed Andy Burnham’s fate]
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