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A new report by the respected Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) warns that Scotland may struggle to afford policies like free tuition fees, free personal care and more generous benefits in the coming years.
The reason we can afford them now is largely because the Scottish Government receives more funding per resident for devolved public services than comparable services in England. For example, it got an extra 32 per cent in 2019-20 and an extra 26 per cent more in 2024-25.
The problem is that, due to the way the famous Barnett formula works, this extra cash is due to fall further to 23 per cent by 2028-29. That’s still a sizeable boost to our public coffers, but the changes will have serious consequences for the next Scottish Government.
Free prescriptions are a good idea but not if the money would be better spent on ensuring the NHS is fit for purpose (Picture: Matt Cardy) | Getty Images‘Increasingly difficult’
Martin Brogaard, an IFS research economist and co-author of the report, said Scotland “currently enjoys more generous public services than England” thanks to the extra money but “this funding advantage is now shrinking as the so-called 'Barnett squeeze' bites”.
"Without substantial increases in devolved revenues, improvements in public sector efficiency or cuts to other spending, it will be increasingly difficult for future Scottish governments to continue to provide a wider range of free services – such as university tuition and personal care – than their counterparts elsewhere in the UK,” he added.
Given the state of public services, like the crumbling NHS and cash-strapped universities being forced to cut jobs, people would be forgiven for thinking Scotland was getting less not more money than its share on a per head basis. But no, the ‘Union dividend’ is real and helping the SNP take what it sees as the moral high ground on a number of issues.
Universal benefits like free tuition fees, prescriptions and personal care are all good things to have – if they are affordable. However, it makes no sense to provide free medicine and education if the institutions charged with delivering them are being driven to the brink of collapse as a consequence.
It will be a bold politician who takes free things away from the public but, if needs must, then they cannot shirk their duty.