Reform UK has closed the gap on Plaid Cymru in the race to become the largest party in the Senedd, according to ITV Cymru Wales' latest poll.
The two parties have consistently polled neck-and-neck but Reform UK has increased its vote share - while Plaid has seen a drop - since our last poll, positioning both parties now tied at 29%.
According to MRP modelling by YouGov for ITV Wales in partnership with Cardiff University, under the new D’Hondt voting system, this round of results means Reform would win 37 seats and Plaid Cymru would win 36.
With both short of a majority it sparks more questions about potential deals with other parties after Wales goes to the polls in just over two weeks time.
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre said: "This poll shows another small drop in support for Plaid Cymru, putting them level with Reform UK at 29%; YouGov's lowest Plaid estimate since November 2024. All polls come with a margin of error, and we should be cautious about reading too much into a single result.
“But taken alongside the broader polling trend, the signal is clear: the race for the largest party remains between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with every other party - including Labour, who were dominant in Welsh politics not two years ago — competing for a distant third place and below.
“What that framing obscures, however, is that finishing first may matter less than it appears. Whichever party leads on seats will face the same coalition arithmetic, and that arithmetic is far more favourable to Plaid than to Reform.
“Plaid has credible partners in Labour and the Greens; a combination of those parties can reach a working majority. Reform has no such options.
“The only party that has indicated any willingness to work with them is the Conservatives, who on these numbers will not come close to bridging the gap to a Senedd majority. In a proportional system, the route to government matters as much as the vote share, and on that measure, the two parties are not as evenly matched as the headline figures suggest.
“A situation where Reform UK are the largest party but find themselves in opposition will nonetheless be a novel one for Welsh voters still adjusting to the realities of proportional government formation."
--------------------
• Subscribe to ITV News on YouTube:
http://bit.ly/2lOHmNj
• Get breaking news and more stories at
http://www.itv.com/news
Follow ITV News on TikTok
https://www.tiktok.com/@itvnews?lang=en
Follow ITV News on Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/itvnews/
Follow ITV News on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/itvnews/
Follow ITV News on X:
https://twitter.com/itvnews 
Comments (0)